MIDEAST MIRROR 07.05.15, SECTION A (ISRAEL)
The big news of the day is, of course, that Binyamin Netanyahu has managed to put together a coalition of 61 Knesset members, which will be sworn in next week. By then, Netanyahu will tell Likud MKs who will be a minister and who will not – although Moshe Ya'alon is expected to carry on as defense minister.
After weeks of negotiations, the prime minister put the final piece of his coalition puzzle together with just two hours to go before the deadline expired. He was made to sweat for the last few hours by Habayit Hayehudi – and it's Naftali Bennett's party that is the subject of most of the headlines and analyses in the Thursday editions.
Although Israel Hayom leads with a banner headline proclaiming the arrival of 'The fourth Netanyahu government,' it goes on to report that the big winner of the recent horse-trading was Habayit Hayehudi, since it has managed to grab the Justice Ministry for Ayelet Shaked and the education portfolio for Bennett. As most commentators point out, for a party with just eight seats in the Knesset, these are two very senior ministries. Bennett and Shaked will both be members of the inner security cabinet. The Jerusalem Post, Haaretz and Yedioth Ahronoth also lead with Netanyahu's last-minute success in cobbling together a coalition and they all manage to refrain from editorializing in their lead headlines.
Opposition leader Isaac Herzog (Zionist Union) reacted to the news on Thursday, reiterating that his party went to the opposition as promised from the beginning. 'We don't have to say it every minute on every street corner. I don't have an intention nor did I have to be a fifth wheel of Netanyahu. I intend to replace Netanyahu,' he said. Herzog went on to say that, 'This morning the countdown to building a government ended and now begins the countdown to its toppling.' He rejected suggestions that he will take the role of foreign minister: 'I won't be Netanyahu's corkscrew and I won't be used as a fifth wheel.'
Herzog's partner in the Zionist Union, Tzipi Livni, made similar comments in an interview on Army Radio on Thursday morning, accusing Netanyahu of 'capitulating' to his coalition partners. 'The main problem is the nature of this government,' Livni asserted. 'The distribution of funds to sectors and not to the Israeli people as a whole, looking not at the state of Israel, rather at survival, and basically buying the votes of so-called natural partners who can support him and ensure he stays in the job. It's just moving backward.' When asked if there was a possibility Zionist Union would join Netanyahu's coalition, Livni flat out stated her party was headed for the opposition.
Nonetheless, Netanyahu's top media advisor, Nir Heifetz, said Thursday that the prime minister has not yet chosen a foreign minister because he is holding the position for Herzog. 'Netanyahu wants to continue running the government, and after he succeeded in building a coalition, he will want to expand it. He knows the opposition. He is keeping the foreign ministry for Herzog, should things work out,' said Heifetz.
There have even been reports that Netanyahu would agree to let Herzog serve as prime minister for the last 18 months of the government, in a power-sharing deal, in exchange for joining the government now. Heifetz criticized former Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman for betraying the choices of the voters during his tenure.
According to AFP, meanwhile, reactions to the new Israeli government from Ramallah have been predictably acerbic. According to senior Palestinian official Saeb Erekat, the new Israeli government 'will be one of war, which will be against peace and stability in our region.' Erekat added that the right-leaning government will 'set its sights' primarily on settlement expansion in the West Bank – land the Palestinians want for a future state along with the Gaza Strip.
In other news, Haaretz reports that Israeli defense officials believe that the cell that intended to place an explosive charge on the Israeli-Syrian border in the Golan Heights 10 days ago was operated by Samir Kuntar, who was working on instructions from Iran. The incident, in which four militants were killed, took place less than 48 hours after an air strike attributed to Israel had destroyed weapons that were supposed to be handed over to Hizbollah.
Despite the proximity of the events, Israel believes that Iran had operated the cell, rather than Hizbollah. Israel also believes that the air strike in April was not connected to the attempt to plant explosives on the Israel-Syria border. Israeli officials believe the cell’s activity near the border fence could be part of Kuntar’s attempt to reinstate the network he had set up in the Golan Heights.
DUCK: Writing in Maariv, Ben Caspit comments on Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's new coalition, which he says will find it close to impossible to implement any reforms and – unless the Zionist Union joins – will not survive very long.
"Avigdor Lieberman's revenge was meticulously planned and perfectly executed. Lieberman is one of a small number of people who know from personal experience the significance of a Netanyahu government in which Naftali Bennett is a senior minister and Ayelet Shaked is not only justice minister but also a member of the security cabinet.
Lieberman knew precisely what Netanyahu has been going through over the past couple of days and he knows exactly what the prime minister will be going through in the next couple of weeks. Until three days ago, Netanyahu was working on a cunning plan to keep Shaked out of his government. Now he's stuck with her – like a thorn in his side. Not only is she going to be a member of his inner cabinet, she's going to hold one of the key ministerial positions that are vital for perpetuating his role – the minister responsible for appointing Israel's next attorney general.
Netanyahu would much prefer for Raviv Drucker to become justice minister; anybody apart from Shaked, who was driven out of his bureau several years ago by the prime minister's wife but who then made a spectacular comeback. It's not too early to start complaining about the new cabinet, even if it will only be convened a handful of times. Netanyahu is starting to feel a sense of longing for the good old days of Yair Lapid.
Having said all that, I do have a good word to say about Shaked. Of all the heroes of the right, she is the only one who agreed to take on such a dangerous ministry. Over the past several weeks, almost everyone whose name was linked to the position has refused to be even considered as a candidate. Statistics don't lie and MKs from the Likud and other parties can reel off the names of all those who almost became justice minister only to get cold feet at the last minute. Shaked was warned about the dangers of allowing herself to be handed this poisoned chalice and she is well aware of the bitter battle that she will have to wage as justice minister – yet she was still happy to accept it.
Despite some commentators' panic, I do not think that Shaked will be a disaster as justice minister. True, she is a keen ideological rightist, but she's not crazy and she's not corrupt; she has a head on her shoulders and a keen mind. The legal system needs a good shake up – as the latest corruption scandal involving a former top prosecutor and a leading attorney proves – and we can rely on Moshe Kahlon to protect the Supreme Court from Habayit Hayehudi's interference. So let's all just calm down a little.
Netanyahu entered into these coalition negotiations as the big winner and came out as a little loser. He made every mistake in the book. Netanyahu was drunk on the election result, which was a total surprise to everyone – himself included – and he forgot that after Election Day comes the day after Election Day. He has sold off almost all of his assets at a ridiculously low price and he's about to launch a fragile, divided, conflicted coalition with a paper-thin majority. His survivability is minimal and his ability to push through reforms even lower.
His own Likud party, meanwhile, is hugely frustrated by everything that has happened since March 17. Within the ruling party there were some who joked yesterday that Israel should be eternally grateful to the Lord Almighty that Netanyahu is not negotiating with the Palestinians. If he were, they quipped, the Palestinians would just have to ask for Jerusalem and Netanyahu would give it to them.
All that is left for Netanyahu to do is to hope and pray that Isaac Herzog will change his mind and that, in a few weeks from now, he will agree to bring the Zionist Union into the coalition. In order for that to happen, Netanyahu will have to offer him a power-sharing agreement, in which Herzog takes over as prime minister for half of the term. Until that happens; Netanyahu's government looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck. Even our prime minister has to agree – his new government is a duck."
GAZAN INTERESTS: Writing in Yedioth Ahronoth, Giora Eiland argues that, since Israel's only interest in Gaza is security-related, it makes no sense to block the rebuilding process there.
"There are several reasons for a growing sense of concern in the Israeli defense establishment that another military conflict in the south of the country is imminent: the rocket that was fired from the Gaza Strip at Israel on Independence Day, the reports that Hamas is working overtime to rebuild its tunnels and the general sense of disquiet among the people of Gaza. So what should Israel do? The answer, as always, must be based on a clear and precise definition of national interest.
When it comes to Gaza, Israel's only interest is security-related and is two-pronged: maintaining the quiet for as long as possible and reducing Hamas' stockpile of weapons and missiles. Israel has no other interest when it comes to Gaza – not territorial, not political and not economic. There are three possible ways of promoting our national interest. The first is to reach some kind of long-term arrangement with the Palestinian Authority, which would also resolve the Gaza issue. Secondly, Israel can continue to put economic pressure on the Gaza Strip, until such time as the Hamas regime is overthrown. And thirdly, Israel can bolster its common interests with Hamas, thereby preventing any further outbreak of violence. Only the third of these options is in any way realistic.
But how can it be done? The ceasefire agreement that was reached after Operation Protective Edge determined that, within a month, the second stage would begin and that an Egypt-led panel would start to rebuild Gaza. It has been eight months since then and there is no panel and very little chance of one being set up. The reason is simple: the two parties which are supposed to spearhead the rebuilding effort – the Palestinian Authority and Egypt – have no interest in seeing Gaza rebuilt. Moreover, they are indifferent to the possibility that there will be another round of fighting between Israel and Hamas. We find ourselves in the strange situation where Israel and Hamas have common interests, while, on the other side, there is a coalition of forces (including Egypt and the Palestinian Authority) which do not really care about the suffering of the people of Gaza and wouldn't be too worried if the suffering and the frustration explode into violence.
The insistence of Israel and the rest of the international community that only the Palestinian Authority be given the resources to rebuild Gaza is a terrible mistake. Under these circumstances, it's up to Israel to spearhead an international effort to rebuild the beleaguered Strip. The resources must be given to the only effective government in Gaza – which just happens to be the Hamas government. Since our interest in Gaza is purely security-related, Israel can afford to be generous on every other front, including the establishment of a seaport in Gaza; in exchange, we can demand a powerful international regime of inspections that will prevent these resources from being misused or misappropriated. Absurdly, since there is no agreed-up international apparatus to oversee the process, the cement that Israel sends to Gaza is easily repurposed for building tunnels.
If there is another war between Israel and Gaza this summer, some will say that it is a result of Israel's failure to create an effective deterrence. The truth, however, is that there is effective deterrence, but that's not enough. We will only be able to avert another war if we use the carrot and the stick: the stick of deterrence and the carrot of economic and political incentives. Those who oppose this approach argue that rebuilding Gaza will only bolster political support for Hamas. That might be true, but what's wrong with it?
By insisting on expanding Israel's interests in Gaza to the political sphere and by defining our political goals to include bolstering Palestinian President Mahmoud 'Abbas' standing there, we are endangering our one true interest: preventing a war."
THE PUBLIC GETS WHAT THE PUBLIC WANTS: Writing in Yedioth Ahronoth, Eitan Haber says that the people of Israel got what they wanted and deserved – a right-wing government that will find it almost impossible to function properly.
"On March 17, when Israelis went to the polls, a significant proportion of them voted for right-wing parties, so that they would get a right-wing government. That is what the people wanted and that is what the people got. In the next few days, a right-wing government with the slenderest of majorities in the Knesset will be installed.
By saying that 'the people got what they wanted' I am in no way being condescending. It's a fact, even if it is disappointing to many – including the sizeable number of people who believe that what Israel needs now more than anything is a unity government, which would be best able to deal with the political, diplomatic and security challenges that we will be facing in the near future.
A government of 61 Knesset members is a living hell for members of the coalition, especially whoever ends up being named coalition whip. Whoever gets that thankless task will have to ensure that all 61 members of the coalition vote with the government, otherwise no laws will be passed and no reforms will be pushed through. With such a paper-thin majority, every minister and every parliamentarian will have to be present in the Knesset almost around the clock. There will be no agreements between the opposition and the coalition over vote-swapping. Any time a minister wants to travel overseas, he or she will have to take a member of the opposition along, to ensure that the balance of power in the Knesset remains in the government's favor. Ministers will barely be able to take a bathroom break, because the opposition – which has promised to make life as hard as possible for the government – will be keeping a close watch on all 61 members of the coalition, just waiting for an opportunity to defeat it in a vote. The coalition whip will have to be something of an acrobat, a magician and a juggler in order to ensure that the government always has a majority in the Knesset.
These are just the trivial problems facing Netanyahu's new government. The unmistakably right-wing government that will be sworn in next week will have to fight a diplomatic war against almost the entire world – and it may also have to fight a real war against Hamas in the south, Hizbollah in the north and Islamic terrorist organizations that will try to set the Golan Heights alight. This kind of government will spend long hours debating the best way to resolve Israel's security, economic and social problems. With such a slender majority, it will be almost impossible to live anything like a normal life in Israel in the next few months.
Things may turn out very differently, of course. I hope and pray that they will. But that's what the people wanted and that's what the people got. And it serves them right."
LONG, HOT SUMMER: Writing on the News 1 website, Yoni Ben-Menachem comments on recent developments in the Syrian Civil War and how this is being influenced by the rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
"There have been two important statements about Syria this week, both of which reflect the character of the struggle to overthrow the regime of President Bashar al-Assad and how this is linked to the crisis in Yemen.
The first statesmen – as reported by Lebanese newspaper al-Akhbar – came from Hizbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, who told General Michel Aoun (the leader of the Free Patriotic Movement and a former Lebanese prime minister) that Assad and his regime cannot fall, as it would also mean the fall of Hizbollah and the so-called axis of resistance. The second statement was made yesterday by Qatari Foreign Minister Khalid Al Attiyah, who announced that Syrian opposition factions would hold a conference in Riyadh to discuss their plans for the day after the fall of the Assad regime.
In addition to these two statements, there has also been a wave of rumors about the precarious situation of the Alawite minority in Syria (as well as the Assad family itself and their cronies). These rumors, it seems are part of the psychological war that the rebel forces are waging against the regime.
The Syrian Civil War is getting worse – if that's even possible – and the facts speak for themselves. The Idlib region in the north of the country has fallen into the hands of rebels affiliated to al-Qa’ida and the strategically important town of Jisr al-Shughour has also been captured, granting rebel forces complete control of the road leading to Latakia.
In southern Syria, too, there have been intense battles near Daraa between the Syrian army and rebels; as a result, the rebels have taken control of the Nasib border crossing between Syria and Jordan. The rebels hope to reach Damascus and to capture it quickly; they claim that they can do so within a few weeks. Despite their successes, however, the rebels have not managed to defeat the Assad regime. They continue to fight in several provinces simultaneously, in an effort to break through and take Damascus.
Now the fighting is focusing on the Qalamoun area – a mountain range on the border between Syria and Lebanon. The fighting there will be intense. Nasrallah promised that he would 'take care' of the situation there, but he did not specify how or when.
The rebels' recent successes stem, in part, from the fact that they managed to forge a unified coalition with a shared operations room. This coalition, which goes by the name Jaish al-Fateh, includes several rebel groups and has managed to arm itself with advanced antitank missiles. Jaish al-Fateh enjoys military and financial support from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States and the changes that have been happening in Syria are directly linked to the situation in Yemen. The protagonists in both cases are the same protagonists.
King Abdullah, the Saudi monarch who passed away three months ago, decided as far back as 2011 to back the Syrian rebels, but internal differences and power struggles between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates on the one hand, and Qatar and Turkey on the other hand, prevented him from providing the rebels with material support. As a result, Iran and ISIS increased their influence.
When King Salman took over on the death of his brother, the situation changed; he decided to launch a military operation in Yemen, with the support of his Sunni coalition partners, and he decided to become heavily involved in events in Syria, with the stated goal of overthrowing the Assad regime. Saudi Arabia's new strategy, therefore, is to try and put pressure on Iran by escalating the war in Syria. The success of the rebel forces in Syria will go some way to mitigate the failure of the operation against the Houthi rebels in Yemen.
Earlier this week, at a consultation meeting with leaders of the Gulf States, Salman said that 'Bashar al-Assad will have no role to play in the future of Syria.' That is why he also decided to allow the Syrian opposition forces to hold a conference in Riyadh; thus far, such gatherings have always been held in Doha or Istanbul.
The comment by Nasrallah encapsulates Iran's policy regarding Syria. For Iran, keeping Assad in power will allow Tehran to continue controlling Syria. That is why it will do whatever it takes to keep him in power. The fall of the Assad regime would increase the power and influence of jihadist groups and would intensify the battle between Shiites and Sunnis. Iran will not allow this to happen.
Tehran, however, will only take off its gloves once it has signed the final nuclear agreement with the world powers and once sanctions have been lifted. Once that happens, it will use the full force of its military in Syria, in order to save the Assad regime. Until then, Iran has no intention of sitting quietly on the sidelines; its immediate reaction to recent developments will be to intensify the fighting on the Yemen-Saudi Arabia border. There have already been attacks by Houthi rebels along that border and they are expected to intensify in the coming days and weeks. The next few months will be critical for the survival of the Assad regime and the coming summer promises to be very hot indeed."
THE LAST LAUGH: Writing in Haaretz, Yossi Verter says that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has finally managed to put together his fourth government – by bleeding out most of his party's ministerial assets.
"The fourth Netanyahu government was put together with blood, sweat, and tears – Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s and Likud’s.
The last twist in the plot, as if devised by some brilliant scriptwriter, came when the former secretary, an abomination in the eyes of the prime minister and his wife but who became a senior member of the sister party, is suddenly catapulted to the position of justice minister and full member of the security cabinet. Now we must wait for coming episodes of the new season – because there will be a sequel, and it, too, will be bloody.
Much will yet be written about these negotiations that ran until the last minute and left Likud without most of its ministerial assets. Meanwhile, the common assumption is that Netanyahu will seek to expand the government right after the 2015-16 budget is approved at the end of summer.
According to political sources, secret meetings have been taking place all along between members of Likud and the Zionist Union who support a unity government. According to these sources, Zionist Union has set a number of conditions for joining the government. They include resuming negotiations with the Palestinians; removing Habayit Hayehudi from the coalition; creating an agreed-upon mechanism for 'joint leadership' between Netanyahu and Zionist Union leader Isaac Herzog; and a partial rotation of the premiership. Herzog vehemently denies that there have been messages of this type conveyed to Likud, but acknowledges that efforts are being made by various emissaries representing only themselves.
Another possibility that cannot be discounted, since around here anything’s possible, is that Netanyahu will prefer to approach Yesh Atid, with its 11 MKs, whose price for joining would be far lower. He would have to give Yesh Atid only three ministries, foremost among them the Foreign Ministry for its chairman, Yair Lapid. Political observers believe that United Torah Judaism won’t veto Lapid so long as all its coalition wishes are fulfilled. The question is whether Lapid is prepared to commit political and electoral suicide to become foreign minister.
If we’re already dealing with scripts, one cannot ignore the revenge motif that has characterized the process of setting up the State of Israel’s 34th government. Readers can decide whose revenge was sweeter – Yisrael Beiteinu chairman Avigdor Lieberman’s on Netanyahu, or Habayit Hayehudi chairman Naftali Bennett’s on Netanyahu. The former walked out at the 119th minute, leaving the prime minister quivering and totally exposed to pressure and extortion. The second pounced on the opportunity and turned the tables; now the man who until a few days ago was condemned to be the rejected stepchild is now dancing on the table, shoulder to shoulder with Ayelet Shaked.
One cannot ignore the irony – most of this government’s senior portfolios will be held by Likudniks who abandoned ship and succeeded. Moshe Kahlon will be finance minister, Bennett education minister and Shaked, who three years ago almost ran in the Likud primaries, justice minister. The veteran Likud members, who all remained loyal despite the scars on their backs from the Bibi-Sara experience, will have to make do with the leftovers."
SURVIVAL: Writing in The Jerusalem Post, Isi Leibler says that, in order for his government to survive, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu must broaden it.
"Following weeks of unedifying horse trading, threats and extortions, compounded by personal malice, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has finally cobbled together an untenable coalition with only a single-seat majority -- which any single Knesset member in the coalition could bring down. To survive, it must be broadened.
Most Israelis are disappointed that a national unity government could not be formed at a time when we are faced with daunting political and diplomatic challenges, in particular further major tensions with the Obama administration. Yet, there is still considerable speculation that, despite public protestations to the contrary, both Netanyahu and Isaac Herzog would prefer to create a unity government and that at a later stage, the coalition will be expanded to incorporate the Zionist Union or as a last resort, even Yesh Atid.
Excoriating Netanyahu for capitulating to unreasonable demands from minority parties that run counter to the will of the people is fine for populist armchair critics. But the responsibility rests with our dysfunctional political system and those voters who supported the small parties. Were Herzog in Netanyahu’s shoes, he would have behaved in exactly the same manner. To form a government, Netanyahu was forced to forfeit the best available candidates for ministerial positions and even appoint utterly unsuitable ministers. In addition, he was obliged to submit to demands of small one-dimensional parties -- adopting policies that Likud and the vast majority of Israelis strongly oppose.
Ironically, despite restricting Netanyahu to a hairline majority, the calculated decision of Avigdor Lieberman to undermine Netanyahu and join the opposition will delight most Israelis. Lieberman was the antithesis of what Israel required for the role of foreign minister. Cynically claiming to be motivated by ideological principles was pathetic for Lieberman, who is notorious for his political zigzagging. Besides, aside from having a penchant for coarse statements that may appeal to his constituency but alienate the rest of world -- such as his call for disloyal Arab Israelis to be 'beheaded' and the public condemnation of his government during the Gaza war -- Lieberman was probably Israel’s least successful foreign minister.
Naftali Bennett and Habayit Hayehudi were treated shabbily by Netanyahu, who capitulated to Shas at their expense. Nevertheless, had he agreed to Bennett’s demand to become foreign minister, this also would have been disastrous. Bennett is articulate and charismatic but he is repeatedly on record vowing that he would never contemplate a Palestinian state and favors annexation of the territories, which would have provided Obama with all the ammunition required to orchestrate a massive global anti-Israel campaign.
That he initially spurned the offer of the Education Ministry was regrettable. Education should be the paramount concern of Habayit Hayehudi. Bennett has a vision of Israel and Jewish values beyond the religious arena and understands how to reintroduce Jewish values into the secular education stream without religious coercion. The courage he displayed in his previous political forays suggests that he could be an outstanding education minister and achieve major reforms in the system.
The last-minute appointment of Ayelet Shaked to the Justice Ministry was Bennett’s payback for Habayit Hayehudi’s shabby treatment. Although she has no legal background, Shaked is extremely competent and, aside from creating tensions by seeking to reduce the excessive power of the High Court, she will hopefully curtail the control over the rabbinate sought by Shas.
There is considerable disgust with the negative moral implications of appointing Shas leader Aryeh Deri, a convicted felon, as a minister. Fortunately, public outrage and petitions precluded him from obtaining the Interior Ministry which he coveted and had controlled when he was indicted. But it still shames us that such a person could be appointed as religious services minister as well as economy minister.
With such a razor-thin majority, another major disadvantage of the government is that innovation will be severely limited and constructive policies can be vetoed not merely by the absence of the unanimous support of all the small parties but by any individual government Knesset member. As in the past, an absence of cabinet responsibility and Netanyahu’s inability to impose discipline should his ministers act as rulers of independent fiefdoms and maintain their practice of publicly criticizing their own government will likely continue.
In the coming months we will face enormous pressures. Not merely from the Europeans but from the U.S. administration. Once Obama is no longer directing all his efforts towards consummating an agreement with Iran, effectively transforming it into a threshold nuclear power, he is likely to revert to Israel. All indicators suggest that he intends to implement his threat that if Israel fails to toe his line, the U.S. would no longer employ its veto at the United Nations.
His clearly stated policy is that Israel’s borders should be based on the (indefensible) 1949 armistice lines with mutual swaps (which could never be achieved with the intransigent Palestinians), division of Jerusalem, and an indefinite freeze of all settlement construction which, in this context, includes settlement blocs and Jewish east Jerusalem.
Needless to say, Israel will not be able to make such concessions and will need to display a united front in order to ensure that American public opinion and the U.S. Congress will inhibit negative Obama initiatives. Much will depend on the opposition. The Zionist Union has acted commendably since the election in relation to the Iranian issue. Hopefully, it will continue to avoid demagoguery and populism and endorse government policies affecting our national interest.
Indeed, most Israelis hope that even if it leads to the defection of a few of its far left extremist back benchers, the Zionist Union will ultimately become partners in a national unity government that should urgently bring about highly overdue electoral reforms to prevent a repetition of the current intolerable situation."
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