20.4.15 Arab World

MIDEAST MIRROR 20.04.15, SECTION B (THE ARAB WORLD)

1-The spreading fire

2-The Arabs’ only address

1-The spreading fire

Saudi Arabia is gradually being sucked into the burning hot quicksand. It finds itself fighting alongside al-Qa’ida. In fact, it is fighting on that organization’s behalf without prior coordination with it... It would be no surprise if the options that [Houthi leader] Sayyid al-Houthi spoke of on Sunday included expanding this war’s ambit by resorting to long-range rockets and artillery [attacks on Saudi Arabia]. Yemen now is Saudi Arabia’s responsibility, and a heavy burden on the Kingdom, whether during this war or after it ends. The war will be costly in both human and material terms, and it will only get costlier the longer it lasts, just as peace will be costlier because reconstruction will require tens, perhaps hundreds of billions of dollars in various investments in order to appease the Yemeni people and secure their friendship-- ‘Abdelbari ‘Atwan on pan-Arab www.raialyoum.com

In a risible explanation of the reasons for Decisive Storm, al-Houthi claims that Saudi Arabia and the coalition states are seeking to back al-Qa'ida in Yemen! That is an implicit sectarian explanation of the military operations' aims. But al-Houthi may have been led by Nasrallah and 'Tehran's turbaned leaders' to forget that Saudi Arabia has been fighting this extremist organization and other similar organizations for over a decade and a half; and that it is still doing so today. Al-Houthi was naturally trying to portray this ‘storm’ to the simple-minded and the naïve as an act of aggression and an assault on the Yemeni people. He forgot that most of the Yemeni people, as well as their legitimate government, were those who invited this ‘storm’ to cleanse Yemen of his group and the remnants of [former president] Saleh's men-- Saudi al-Watan

Saudi Arabia has wagered heavily on this war. The Saudi-affiliated media have played a decisive role in expanding its aims and exaggerating its expectations and anticipated results. Some say that the war points to an 'Arab awakening'; others repeat the slogan that 'life has returned to the [Arab] nation'; yet others speak of a 'vibrant patriotic wave' that is sweeping over Saudi society; and others speak of 'Iran's defeat' and the retreat of its 'Shiite/Persian' project; still others hope to restore balance to the regional order; and so on and so forth – all of which goes well beyond Yemen's borders and the war on it, to cover the entire region. If the 'political solution' that the Saudi monarch and the U.S. president have both agreed is necessary in Yemen is of the sort that Saudi Arabia spoke of at the beginning of Operation Decisive Storm, my guess is that it will be a long time before the guns fall silent in Yemen--Urayb ar-Rintawi Jordanian ad-Dustour

Had the billions of dollars being spent on this futile war been offered as aid to the Yemeni people, the country’s situation would have been much better than it is today because this war has only exacerbated its suffering and destroyed an already weak infrastructure. Aid to the Yemeni people would have allowed them to live in dignity, instead of creating a new focal point of tension in the Arab world that will give birth to more extremist religious movements in our homeland. A political solution is the sole way out of the war being waged on Yemen. Let all parties without exception sit to the dialogue table, for if the situation continues as it is, there is the threat of a real disaster that will not stop at Yemen's borders. The fire will spread to Saudi Arabia and the entire Arabian Gulf. This is something to fear in the midst of an Arab political and social reality that is driving the entire region towards total anarchy--Jihad al-Moheisin in Jordanian al-Ghad

Yesterday’s (Sunday’s) speech by the Yemeni Houthi leader ‘Abdelmalik al-Houthi was very much a war speech that suggests that the conflict will escalate and intensify, maintains the editor-in-chief of an online pan-Arab daily. It is now clear that this will be a protracted and extremely costly war for all sides, but especially for Saudi Arabia, which will have to finance the war from its diminishing oil returns. Al-Houthi's speech was a risible attempt to mislead the Yemenis into believing that Saudi Arabia, the U.S. and Israel were waging a war on them, says the editorial in a Saudi daily. It was merely a repetition of Iran and its regional allies’ claims resulting from Saudi-led Operation Decisive Storm’s shock-effect on them. There seems to be a growing disagreement over the war between Washington on the one hand, and Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies on the other, notes a leading Jordanian commentator. Riyadh does not want the war to end before achieving an unambiguous military victory, while Washington is apparently not convinced that this is possible. If it does not end soon, the Yemen war threatens dire consequences for the entire region, especially for Saudi Arabia and the Gulf, warns another Jordanian commentator. Rather than supporting UN humanitarian aid for Yemen, Saudi Arabia would have done better to stop its war on this country.

NO POLITICAL HORIZON: “Anyone hearing what the leader of the Ansarullah Movement Sayyid ‘Abdelmalik al-Houthi had to say during his Sunday evening speech on the movement’s TV station al-Maseera would understand that the Yemeni crisis is going to last for a long time to come, that the war will get even more ferocious, and that there is no political solution on the horizon,” writes Editor-in-Chief ‘Abdelbari ‘Atwan on Monday on the pan-Arab www.raialyoum.com.

Sayyid al-Houthi, who appeared for the first time after an absence of 24 days amidst numerous reports leaked by his enemies insisting he had died in a coalition air raid on his headquarters in the city of Sa’da, did not propose any peace initiative. He did not offer any concessions. Nor did he show any signs of fear because of the intensive aerial assault on his forces and other targets in Yemen. Throughout, he quoted Quranic verses that speak of injustice and aggression, and that ask for steadfastness; and throughout, he stressed that he ‘relies on God, while they rely on the U.S.’

This was a rallying call in the full sense of the word. He spoke of a certain victory, of patience, of the inevitable defeat of those who surrender, of the other side’s billions of dollars compared to the Yemeni people’s poverty, hunger and deprivation, and of American participation in the [Saudi-led coalition’s] operations room.

All these subjects were carefully chosen to have an impact on the vicious psychological war that is unfolding alongside the confrontation on the battlefields. So far, the battle has been one-sided – aerial bombardments without the other party having the ability to respond in kind.

It was worth noting that Sayyid al-Houthi never mentioned [fugitive] Yemeni President ‘Abed-Rabbo Mansour Hadi or his Deputy Khaled Bahah. He confined himself to some ambiguous references to ‘legitimacy’ when he said that it belongs to the side that has right on its side, and that this is the legitimacy of the Holy Qur’an and that of confronting aggression, as he put it.

The other side, which stands in the opposite trench in Operation Decisive Storm, has been waging a fierce media counter-offensive after a long period of silence. It is using its media to transmit its messages so as to reach the broadest sphere possible. This counter-offensive can be summarized as follows:

- First, it was no coincidence that Sayyid al-Houthi’s speech came only two days after that delivered by Hizbollah’s leader Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah at a [Lebanese] popular rally ‘in support of Yemen’. He launched a ferocious attack on Saudi Arabia in which he used very strong words, accusing it of spreading ‘takfiri thought and terrorism.’ The response came from Emirati Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Anwar Qarqash and from the Emirate of Dubai’s Head of General Security Dahi Khalfan using even stronger terms.

- Second, [Iranian supreme leader] Sayyid Ali Khamene’i issued instructions to the Iranian Defense Ministry to deploy its resources, raise the level of alert and military readiness of the army, the Revolutionary Guard Corps, and all related agencies, declaring that ‘the Iranians are a nation that has proved its ability to defend itself if it suffers any attack.’

- Third, Sayyid ‘Abdelmalik al-Houthi’s speech, which lasted for over forty minutes, included a clear incitement against Saudi Arabia and its allies, threatening to resort to all available means against them. He also invoked the threat posed by al-Qa’ida as a means of warning the West, claiming that this organization that is in control of the Yemeni south is the main beneficiary of the current events– as if reminding everyone of the threat posed by Islamic State (ISIS) in Iraq and Syria.

- Fourth, and according to American reports, Tehran has deployed over thirty warships to the Bab al-Mandab Straits, and its media has given prominence to these reports. This sends a message that Iran will not abandon its allies in Yemen.

We do not know precisely what effect Sayyid al-Houthi’s speech will have on the different shades of the Yemeni people’s spectrum– those who support Operation Decisive Storm, or those who oppose it. And we also do not know what the Saudi/Gulf response will be. But what we are quite sure about is that the war in Yemen is expanding, and that the prospects of a political solution are on the wane. Therefore, there is a strong likelihood that it may stretch for many weeks, or months, or even years to come.

The ground war that many have expected after the aerial bombardment has failed to achieve any of its aims – most prominently, the reinstatement of the ‘legitimate’ President ‘Abed-Rabbo Mansour Hadi– now seems very unlikely after Pakistan has retreated, Egypt is dragging its feet and Turkey’s clear commitment to a political solution.

Saudi Arabia is gradually being sucked into the burning hot quicksand. It finds itself fighting alongside al-Qa’ida. In fact, it is fighting on that organization’s behalf without prior coordination with it. General Ahmad al-‘Asiri, the coalition’s military spokesman and advisor to the Saudi Defense Minister now talks of daily losses among Saudi troops in border clashes south of the Kingdom along the borders with the Yemeni provinces controlled by the Houthis. It would be no surprise if the options that Sayyid al-Houthi spoke of on Sunday included expanding this war’s ambit by resorting to long-range rockets and artillery [attacks on Saudi Arabia].

Yemen now is Saudi Arabia’s responsibility, and a heavy burden on the Kingdom, whether during this war or after it ends. The war will be costly in both human and material terms, and it will only get costlier the longer it lasts, just as peace will be costlier because reconstruction will require tens, perhaps hundreds of billions of dollars in various investments in order to appease the Yemeni people and secure their friendship.

“The problem lies in the continued retreat of revenues from oil due to the drop in oil prices. This problem may become even more complicated after Iranian oil returns to the markets in force in the wake of the nuclear peace deal, which would entail a further drop in prices,” concludes ‘Atwan.

End…

CARBON COPIES: "Abdelmalik al-Houthi's speech last night said nothing new," writes the editorial in Monday's Saudi daily al-Watan.

We can say that his speech was almost a carbon copy of Hassan Nasrallah's two most recent speeches: The same terms speaking of resistance, and the same slogans of delusory mobilization, and a risible attempt to deceive the Yemeni and Arab citizens into believing that Operation Decisive Storm is a Zionist/American/Israeli scheme led by Saudi Arabia.

Al-Houthi criticizes the coalition’s members that include Arab and Islamic states. He even criticizes the legitimate Yemeni state because it called for Yemen's salvation. He criticizes the international community as represented by the UN, which recently adopted a resolution on Yemen under Chapter VII of its Charter. In other words, al-Houthi criticizes the entire world – of course, except for Tehran's politicians! For him, 'Iran is a major Islamic state'!

This is how al-Houthis spoke yesterday, after hurling his insults at Saudi Arabia. In light of this, any ignoramus would understand the implications of al-Houthi's speech. Any ordinary human being would simply note the clear elements shared by Khamenei, Qassem Soleimani, Nasrallah and 'Abdelmalik al-Houthi’s political discourse. He or she would realize that there are those who are seeking to promote a confessional [Shiite] project so as to spread their influence and impose their control over the region.

In his tense and embellished speech, and in a risible explanation of the reasons for Decisive Storm, al-Houthi claims that Saudi Arabia and the coalition states are seeking to back al-Qa'ida in Yemen! That is an implicit sectarian explanation of the military operations' aims. But al-Houthi may have been led by Nasrallah and 'Tehran's turbaned leaders' to forget that Saudi Arabia has been fighting this extremist organization and other similar organizations for over a decade and a half; and that it is still doing so today.

Al-Houthi was naturally trying to portray this ‘storm’ to the simple-minded and the naïve as an act of aggression and an assault on the Yemeni people. He forgot that most of the Yemeni people, as well as their legitimate government, were those who invited this ‘storm’ to cleanse Yemen of his group and the remnants of [former president] Saleh's men. He did not mention the Yemenis who marched in support of the ‘storm’ carrying pictures of [Saudi] King Salman.

Was it not Saudi Arabia that led the [2011] Gulf initiative to end the political crisis in Yemen? Were the Gulf states not those who invited the various Yemeni parties to the negotiating table? But Ali Saleh refused, and used the situation to haggle, while al-Houthi and his group also refused and proceeded to try and take control of Aden with the aim of liquidating the country's legitimate president and occupying the whole country.

Al-Houthi did not mention the Kingdom and the Gulf states' diplomatic efforts to end the Yemeni crisis. What happened was that al-Houthi rejected dialogue and turned against Yemeni legitimacy. He continued to tamper with Yemen until he reached Aden; and he wagered on Iran and its regional project. But the response fell on him like a bolt of lightning. It is as simple as that!

"So, there is nothing new in the speech. It is a mere set of tense reactions riddled with insults and claims of conspiracy. And this is because the ‘storm’ has had a powerful effect," concludes the daily.

End…

DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVES: "The Saudi monarch and the U.S. president reportedly agreed on the need for a 'political solution' for the Yemeni crisis in a telephone conversation a few days ago," writes 'Urayb ar-Rintawi in the Jordanian daily ad-Dustour.

This is understandable from Washington's perspective for many reasons. But what about the Saudi perspective?

Anyone who closely scrutinizes the American stance towards the Yemeni crisis would understand that the U.S. did not want a new front to be opened in this region which is already boiling over with burning political, ideological, and confessional conflicts and wars, wars between axes and camps, and wars by proxy. But since its priority is the nuclear agreement with Tehran, it could find no other way to 'reassure' Saudi Arabia and some of its Arab allies other than by offering them some 'consolation prize' – as we have suggested in a previous article. This consists of logistical and intelligence support for Operation Decisive Storm. And we also asked what sort of 'consolation prize' would be offered to Israel, the second state [after Saudi Arabia] that is hostile to Iran is opposed to any agreement with it.

Washington has been careful not to be directly involved in the fighting in Yemen. Even the aerial refueling of Saudi warplanes by U.S. aircraft occurs outside Yemeni airspace, which sends a symbolic signal that has its own implications. This is despite the fact that Iran and its regional allies in particular have insisted on describing what is happening in Yemen as 'an American/Saudi aggression.' Yet a calm reading of the situation as it appears from Washington, does not support this claim.

Furthermore, according to a certain understanding in Washington of what is happening in Yemen, the U.S. is all but losing the war on terrorism in that part of the world, where al-Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has a strong and growing influence. This is the most dangerous branch of al-Qa'ida in the view of the American security establishment. In fact, Republicans and Democrats alike fear that al-Qa'ida is the main beneficiary of the war in and on Yemen. As a result, there seems to be a degree of impatience to turn the page on this crisis and reestablish the priority of the war on terrorism, rather the wars between confessional groups, the wars over regional roles, and the wars by proxy that are raging in the region. After all, American military and security attacks on al-Qa'ida have all but ceased since the outbreak of Decisive Storm, which is now in its fourth week.

In fact, a number of Arab governments that have joined the war on terrorism to varying degrees, share this view with the U.S.. Jordan heads this list. It still gives absolute priority to the war on ISIS, so much so that King 'Abdullah II said in a recent press interview that Jordan alone has stuck by the U.S. in this war, and that the Arab and regional states are no longer participating in military operations [against ISIS]. This is despite Jordan's official support for Operation Decisive Storm and even its 'symbolic' participation in the Saudi-led regional coalition.

Pressures are mounting on Washington to find a political way out of the Yemeni predicament, in light of the international and humanitarian organizations’ reports that speak of a catastrophe threatening the Yemenis as a result of the war and the Saudi-led coalition’s siege of the country. The effects of this catastrophe will not be alleviated by the Saudi offer of a grant to the UN to provide urgent humanitarian aid and relief to the Yemenis. From the Yemenis' perspective, the war should be ended rather sending aid to help its victims. The root of the problem should be addressed first by preventing more victims from falling.

But the question regarding the various parties' positions seems to be both more important and more complicated when it comes to Saudi Arabia. According to sources close to possible mediators in the war that has been imposed on Yemen, they are not that eager to use their good offices. The main reason is that Saudi Arabia prefers 'a decisive military victory' to any political solution in Yemen. At the very least, it wishes to achieve a clear and unambiguous victory that is not open to interpretation, before initiating any moves to convene a dialogue or set up a negotiations table.

If the 'political solution' that the Saudi monarch and the U.S. president have both agreed is necessary in Yemen is of the sort that Saudi Arabia spoke of at the beginning of Operation Decisive Storm, my guess is that it will be a long time before the guns fall silent in Yemen. For the preconditions for this solution from the Saudi perspective are tantamount to a surrender document and [the Houthi/Saleh alliance’s] 'white flags' raised in Sa’da and Sana'a. But I do not believe that Decisive Storm has achieved sufficient progress in its fourth week to impose such terms and diktats on the targeted party.

On the other hand, if the proposed political solution is closer to a 'no-winner/no-loser' formula, then I suppose that that would amount to a slap in the face of 'decisiveness' and its 'storm,' since it amounts to a proclamation that the operation has failed to achieve its intended aims.

But there is a third scenario for explaining this 'American/Saudi accord.' According to this scenario, each side meant something different when speaking of 'a political solution,' and the announcement that there was a mutual accord was a softened diplomatic turn of phrase that was meant to postpone any public expression of disagreement and difference.

What lends further credence to this third scenario is the Saudi (and Gulf) reaction to Ban Ki-moon's statements in which he called all parties fighting in Yemen to accept an immediate end for the first time since the outbreak of the ‘storm’. His statement annoyed a number of Gulf capitals, including Riyadh.

"And there are reports of intensive activity that will now begin in Washington and New York to contain these statement's repercussions," concludes Rintawi.

End…

THE MAIN LOSERS: "The Arab peoples are the main losers in the futile wars that are now raging in the region," writes Jihad al-Moheisin in the Jordanian daily al-Ghad.

Most of the victims are civilians, and there are losses at every political, military, and economic level. Moreover, and especially in the Yemeni and Syrian cases, the main losers are the states where the wars are raging, as well as those that are backing their proxies in these wars.

The Zionist enemy and the Western and American arms and pharmaceutical companies are the parties that are securing any real gains and economic benefits, as will the companies that will subsequently be in charge of reconstruction. Once the war ends, the situation will move from pointless slaughter to economic reconstruction, whose main beneficiaries will be the multinational corporations that first seek wars then reconstruction contracts. All of which confirms that there is no political side or force that is taking the Arab peoples or the states that govern them into account.

I wish that the peace initiative for Yemen that was presented by Iran had been Jordanian or Egyptian or Algerian, or that some other Arab country had proposed it. But the Arab order has reached unenviable levels of impotence and defeatism. Parties far and near – Russians and Iranians – are coming forward with initiatives and plans to extract the Arabs from their problems, while we pursue our ignorance, killing each other with the swords of Sunnis and Alawites as if it were the nation's fate to be doomed to fighting over the history of people who lived centuries ago, even though there is much doubt about the truth of the stories that have been recounted about them.

As an Arab pained by the wars between the sects in which we find ourselves, I seek any ray of hope that may save the wretched of the earth from the lethal fire that is burning them. The four-point Iranian plan for peace in Yemen proposed to the UN calls for an end to the 'futile' aerial campaign that Saudi Arabia is leading in Yemen. It calls for an immediate ceasefire and for all foreign military operations to cease and for the urgent delivery of medical and humanitarian aid, the resumption of political talks, and the formation of a national unity government.

We are in direst need of a solution to the war being waged on Yemen. Had the billions of dollars being spent on this futile war been offered as aid to the Yemeni people, the country’s situation would have been much better than it is today because this war has only exacerbated its suffering and destroyed an already weak infrastructure.

Aid to the Yemeni people would have allowed them to live in dignity, instead of creating a new focal point of tension in the Arab world that will give birth to more extremist religious movements in our homeland.

A political solution is the sole way out of the war being waged on Yemen. Let all parties without exception sit to the dialogue table, for if the situation continues as it is, there is the threat of a real disaster that will not stop at Yemen's borders. The fire will spread to Saudi Arabia and the entire Arabian Gulf. This is something to fear in the midst of an Arab political and social reality that is driving the entire region towards total anarchy.

Yemen has been burnt by the curse of oil. The irony is that Saudi Arabia has decided to grant 274-million dollars to the UN to finance humanitarian operations in Yemen.

"Would it not have been better to end the war altogether?" asks Moheisin in conclusion.

Ends…

2-The Arabs’ only address

Pakistan’s refusal to join the war in Yemen suggests that the Arabs’ should only rely on themselves and develop their own nuclear capabilities, says Mohammad Barhouma in pan-Arab al-Hayat

Saudi Arabia and the other Arab countries should seriously reconsider their reliance on Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent in ensuring Arab security after the Pakistani parliament’s decision not to take part in Operation Decisive Storm, urges a Jordanian commentator in a Saudi-owned daily. They should henceforth proceed based on the assumption that Arab security can only be ensured by the Arabs.

PRUDENCE BALANCE AND THE MANAGEMENT OF INTERESTS: "Whether we understand the background and reasons for the Pakistani parliament's decision to remain neutral in Operation Decisive Storm, or whether we feel let down and develop a subconscious sense that 'we are alone', what has happened merely confirms that politics is a matter of prudence, balance, and the management of interests," writes Mohammad Barhouma in the Saudi-owned pan-Arab daily al-Hayat.

It also confirms that our diplomatic and political skills are measured by our ability to convince others to take our interests into account, making them part of their own interests that do not add any burden upon them.

Pakistan's parliament's decision on Operation Decisive Storm in Yemen amounts to a test of some friends. It should add to Saudi Arabia and its Arab allies’ sense of the significance of self-reliance, leading to the conviction that 'Arab security is an Arab responsibility and its primary address is an Arab one.' This does not mean that alliances and friendships are unimportant, or that we should belittle the role played by great powers; nor is it a call to isolate ourselves from others and the world.

In recent years, there was a great deal of Arab investment in relations with Russia; yet at the end of the day, Moscow did not shy away from supplying Tehran with the S-300 ground-to-air missile system. Experts say that Iran's possession of the M-1 system and Moscow's agreement to supply it with the S-300 will now mean that Iran will have a comprehensive air defense system that is sufficient to protect its airspace and various nuclear installations. This is why analysts urge the Arab states to pursue the Japanese model, namely, to become a nuclear threshold state that can produce nuclear weapons if necessary in the future.

In this regard, there are reports that U.S. President Barack Obama may propose the idea of an American ‘nuclear umbrella’ in his upcoming meeting with Gulf officials at Camp David so as to confront the Arab states’ threat to proceed with uranium-enrichment projects, and prevent certain Gulf states from possibly obtaining nuclear military technology. Despite the many international obstacles facing this last option, the theoretical cause for it is the emergence of an Arab sense of dissatisfaction with reliance on the U.S. in securing strategic Arab interests. This view is spreading among the Gulf’s intellectual and political elite on the grounds that such reliance 'would limit Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states' freedom and their ability to maneuver outside the framework of American calculations and interests.'

When the UAE signed its agreement regarding its nuclear program, it voluntarily relinquished its right to enrich uranium locally. That is a sovereign Emirati decision that Abu-Dhabi believed to be consistent with its vision, interests, and circumstances. At the time, the U.S. described this agreement as an 'ideal model.' But it does not bind anyone else in the Gulf or the Arab states, especially since the in-principle nuclear agreement with Iran permits it to enrich uranium to 3.8% and use it for civilian purposes.

In the past, eyes would turn to Pakistan when the Gulf considered the issue of nuclear arms. Today, and after what has happened in the Pakistani parliament in response to Operation Decisive Storm, it seems necessary to calculate more carefully, create alternatives, and work seriously on developing the notion that 'the main address for Arab security is an Arab one'," concludes Barhouma.

Ends…

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